Just last month, I called the race for Best Adapted Screenplay “fairly stagnant” and declared Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) to be “practically unbeatable.” Well, a lot can change in a month. This race has now been completely flipped on its head by the surge of the new Best Picture frontrunner, CODA. For months, this category has seemed like an easy win for Campion. Now it’s looking like an unfathomable loss.
To be fair, there’s still a damn strong chance Campion somehow rallies in the final stages and takes her second screenwriting Oscar. She scored more than 30 wins from the critics groups plus a victory at Critics Choice, which is why she’s seemed like the obvious choice since September. But Campion’s surprise loss to Sian Heder at BAFTA highlighted how the tide has shifted.
After CODA scored an expected SAG Ensemble win and a stunning PGA victory, the film has all the buzz heading into the final Oscar voting stage. Heder’s win at WGA was entirely foreseen, given Campion was ineligible, but it does mean she’s scored all the headlines just as Academy members begin filling out their ballots. That’s what may count more than Campion’s dozens of wins over the last few months.
With such a seemingly tight battle, there is the possibility Heder and Campion split the votes and either Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (Drive My Car) stroll through for an upset victory. Frankly, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome in the worst, especially the latter.
If CODA is indeed winning Best Picture, it seems certain to pick up a screenwriting win too. Look, I’m not going to badmouth a film that’s genuinely uplifting and heartwarming, but calling its screenplay the “best” of the year is something none of us would have said a few months ago. But one has to read the tea leaves to see a race that seemed certain to go one way is now heading another. I’ll play it safe and predict CODA but I’ll be rooting for The Power of the Dog.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. CODA (Apple TV+)
Sian Heder
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Jane Campion
3. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
4. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Maggie Gyllenhaal
5. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
Will win: CODA
Should win: The Power of the Dog
Possible shocker: Drive My Car
